2021 MLB playoffs: prop bets for Monday’s ALDS and NLDS action, including Max Scherzer’s strikeouts
Here on CBS Sports, I’m the baseball guy who chooses the so-called prop bets. That is, I’m going to jump into the action on Caesars Sportsbook and grab some things other than pick the game out of the total (aka “plus / minus”). I’m making the play selections on SportsLine and there are two more at the moment. I’ve gone 10-2-1 so far in the playoffs – and that was after a 0-1-1 start in the wild card game AL – so go ahead and subscribe.
Here in prop bets, which are considerably harder to hit but also have great odds every time we shoot, I’m sitting at +130 for six days of the playoffs. I’m on a dry run so we could definitely use one to increase that total again. Let’s go.
All the chances are courtesy of Caesars.
I return to the well. I tried that call in Game 2 and we came back empty after Chris Sale only lasted one set. We all know how much of an impact the Arozarena playoff is and the Rays desperately need it. Other things line up well to land that jackpot.
- The Red Sox desperately need the length of left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez in this one, although they don’t necessarily need to clear the paddock at the first sign of trouble knowing they have a Game 5 if need be. . Basically, absent a Sale-like meltdown, Arozarena gets multiple shots on Rodriguez.
- Rodriguez had a 3.95 ERA on the road this season, but 5.95 at Fenway.
- In the regular season, Arozarena reached 0.171 more points in OPS against lefties. He made 10 home runs in 202 at-bat.
- Arozarena has always hit very well at Fenway (.355 / .412 / 0.516 in the regular season), although he didn’t score.
We will add the first three points to it and roll a “it is due” to the fourth.
Max Scherzer, less than 7.5 strikeouts -130
It might sound shocking to bet Mad Max won’t get eight strikeouts and that might even be silly. He’s just going in the wrong direction over there. On September 18, he was nailed, allowing two hits in seven clean innings against the Reds. He also struck out seven. Next time around, he only struck out five in five innings on 102 shots. In his last outing in the regular season, he struck out just four in 5 1/3 innings while allowing six runs (five earned) on 11 hits.
In the NL Wild Card Game, Scherzer allowed just one run on three hits, but walked three and struck out just four in 4 1/3 innings. He was already at 94 locations. He obviously had a bad command. I have no doubt the beast in his head is alive and well, but if he starts to tire physically at 37 with so much mileage on his arm, there is only so much mental strength that can take it. .
My best bet on this one is that Scherzer doesn’t really get hit too hard, but the line ends up looking like the wild card game. He’ll be ineffective and Dave Roberts has plenty of box arms with enough rest to warrant something like a five innings out – or less, as we’ve seen in wild play. The Giants have hit less than once per inning (16 strikeouts in 17 offensive innings) so far also in the playoffs.