2021 MLB playoffs: best bets for Sunday’s ALDS games, including Red Sox and White Sox first runs
After a crowd-pleasing start it’s been a rough two days here but we’re still at +175 days five of the playoffs and anyone would take that when we’re primarily trying to call home runs or totals. strikeouts. It is a difficult business. As a reminder, I am making game selections on SportsLine and there are two more at the moment. I’ve gone 8-2-1 so far in the playoffs – and that was after a 0-1-1 start in the wild card game AL – so go ahead and subscribe.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
White Sox four or more points after six innings +155
This is actually listed under “quality pitch” and the Astros conceding four or more runs after six innings.
The proverbial White Sox backs are against the wall and they will swing out of it. They are a much better home team than on the road, they know that and it’s a group that thrives on arrogance and confidence. They are also a sleeping giant on the power front. After the first two games of the ALDS, the White Sox sit down with 18 hits in the series. Each is one. This regular season, they’ve had 110 homers in the guaranteed rate field versus just 80 on the road.
Additionally, Astros starter Luis Garcia had a 2.39 ERA at home this season versus 4.24 on the road. He cleared a .609 OPS at home versus .753 on the road.
I like the White Sox to jump on him early.
Red Sox score first +125
Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is a starter for the Red Sox and in his last two outings against the Rays he allowed just one run in 14 innings while retiring 18. He’s been better at home than on the road this past. season and was very keen against the Yankees in the AL Wild Card Game. Plus, the Rays have been a lot scarier against lefties and mediocre against righties for over a month.
On the other side, something seemed out of order with the Red Sox’s inconsistent offense in Game 2, especially with JD Martinez returning to the roster and Rafael Devers returning amid injury issues. During the regular season, they hit 40 better average points and 107 more OPS points at home.
Rays starter Drew Rasmussen is good and there’s no indication he’s collapsing or anything, but I trust Eovaldi and the Red Sox offense.
We’ve been missing home runs the last couple of days so it would be easy to be a little shy here, but keep in mind that the +400 boost would give us here and I made three home runs in the three. first days of the playoffs (Giancarlo Stanton in the AL Wild Card match, Nelson Cruz and Yordan Alvarez on the first day of the ALDS).
We will try with Bogaerts. After another great regular season, the underrated shortstop went 6 for 11 with two homers so far in the playoffs. He also likes to hit Fenway, as he hit .316 with a .553 slugging at home with 15 regular season home runs, compared to .275, .438 and eight home runs.
He also crushed the Rays this year. During the regular season, he went 21 of 49 (.429) with two doubles and two homers. He’s 5 for 9 with a home run so far in this series.